First off, this all easier to say than do. I am a TAG player at heart. I am lucky to make it come together 1 in 4 times, more realistically its about 1 in 6 because I still spring leaks. But if it pays 20-1....ahead of the game.
I just edited this abit....there is a part about those hobby players you speak of....for the most part I just look for them to be out of my way and find the jittery "pro" internet players. Have a read anyway.....this seems to be becoming consistent. More so this is about how I play any game now because my question has always been what cards can we play if we arn't catching???
Sometimes it is very hard to find a tight player, but after 2 hrs most hobbiests will have made their mistakes. I am a fan of starting the tourney late if it is all calling stations. Read a magazine for a bit, walk the casino, etc. There is nothing in the pots anyway and as the tourney progresses the game gets better. There is a part in Gus's book too I believe and some players have mentioned it here and there. Even if you get AA here it usually gets donkey cracked in this environment!
These thoughts are the results of 400 posts, countless PM's and the advice of a few pros.
I really envy your oppurtunity, I must say, and you are one of the best players I have watched and played with.
Obviously when then cards are coming as TAG we come out shining. I hate counting on that and have really been working on how to use ATC and not become a donk.
One thing that will also help me in the future is to keep gaining confidence on how odds and preflop percentages can really help make so many more hands work, but for now this guide is getting me there slowly. Gus Hansen's book has a good explanation on why his odds are more important than any read against shortstack all ins.
Every mega sat and super sat I have been to playing or observing and most $700+ games I have railed followed these principles. They are even easier at my current level of $100 or less.
There are a ton of TV pros in sats 1500 up. I watched Ivey from the rail in day 1 of the WPT Mirage PokerShowdown and really saw small ball work. He made the final.
I will tell you why and where and who and what makes it go wrong. But if it ends up being just a refresher in lay mans terms, I still think you will see the effort and that its more than just smoke up your ass.
I like to start the tourney a little more LAG than TAG but not far......3 words: Gus, Ivey and Daniel. Small ball poker. I will up the bets against those lazy players you spoke of in your blog.....but only if I think they will fold. Donkey Kong convinsed me you have to do it on the river though, because the hand is realized. But as doc said you have to be sure you know they don't have it. Back to small ball though....
I will only risk 1/4 to 1/3 of my starting stack in this gear. I am not looking to get lucky, position and opponents are key. I like to compare it to limit poker. Before this seems donkish consider this:
It is so much easier to play with an early chip lead. Other players are already chiping up if you play tight and don't catch.
1 premium hand gone bad into just a semi aggressive player will require the same amount of chips.
But what else is gained? We all know how powerful the BB special can be...why not try to create a few? More flops= more chances.
Here are the guidelines though: Hands with both str8 or high flush potential that are at least gappers and have a decent but not great kicker. Only play a flopped pair if you have a solid read!
2x to 5x BB max! I want to stay in the small ball mentality. No pressure to fold or chase! Even premium hands have to follow these rules!
Calling stations pay you off, but don't respect raises. Tight players don't take chances. Draws are played because everyone has chips to spare. Big hands win small pots compared to later in the tourney. But there is no later if strong hands get played hard and get cracked.
No over protecting big pairs or hands against big draws! Keep the pots manageable, usually 1/4 to 3/4 pot sized bets tops.
A few great players have really shown me that making bigger bets here actually gives them the correct odds to chase the draws. I have played a few supersats and this how I busted and how most others bust.....giving good players good odds.....sometimes with ATC!
You can make them pay on the river when they miss and make crying calls.
Being able to make laydowns early is the right foot to get off on. You loosen the pressure a TAG feels to play his good cards to the demise. Folding QQ, AK, KK etc, even AA in terrible situations is easier.
Its way to early to go broke with any pair!
I have to be the raiser when ever it doesn't cost more than 3x to do so! Kenny was one that sold me on this. It just gives so much more credit to stories I am going to try to tell.
If the odds are huge and the next street is cheap trying to turn sets and gutshots are getting huge implied odds. But no more than 3x BB!
Under average circumstances I usually end up with double the average stack by break but that's not all that's gained:
My opponents are confused about my hand selection and I look loose. What some don't pick up is that I am only playing pots that offer 4-1 or better, had mostly passive only players in it and that I am in late position or on a blind. I don't mind the calling stations either if I have a good read.
If I get caught with a draw, I pick up an opportunity to reverse latter.
Playing small ball also has these advantages:
You aren't labeled tight. Many players target tight players with aggression. You are not predictable and you get paid off for big hands. You take those pressures away. You don't get anxious for hands and you get active in the game. GOOD PLAYERS won't pay of a tight player but they will try to crack big hands for implied odds.
People respect your increased stack more. We all know that. Smaller stacks avoid the implied pressure and so do tight players.
You enter more hands that can be bluffed in the right spots. Some boards players just can't call. With position, tight opponents and info, it's easy pickings. Not in it....missed opportunity.
That one from Dave Cung... Google Dave Cung Poker and you will see some of what he has done.
He plays 50-100 PLO mostly. He is the buddy that has won 170K in just 4 tourneys I know off in the last year here in Canada. You will see his WSP 24k win once the standings are updated.
The biggest pitfall is getting complacent and becoming a calling station in bad odd situations. When my discipline is sub par or my focus......forget it..... its over.
On top if this not switching to TAG when stage 2 hits or playing into big stacks can kill me. Discipline is so important!!! Big leak at times. Underestimating my opponent has also got me in trouble. Sometimes the table is to aggressive to make it work. Some times I let my own passive streak convince me that the table is too aggresive when really I just need to focus more on odds and opponents rather than starting hands.
Now stage 2
Switch to TAG. I have no reason to take risks anymore and my loose image will get me paid. 
They say that most of the other players will only think back 15 minutes so in no time you have a tight image again. The guy who thinks you sucked out or tryed to bluff HIM won't forget though and put you on loose.
My added stack size allows me to bully the other TAGs and Passive players when I can get in isolated position pots. I really avoid dangerous situations with LAGs or other stacks here. I can pick up just as many chips outplaying those I know I can. We should be a few hours in so by now I know my table.
Pretty straight forward and TAG is simple.
Biggest Pitfall.....getting married to a big hand and racing! I hate racing! If I have been waiting on cards, its just that much easier to marry them and bust. BAD PRESSURE!
Stage 3
2 tables or last 15% of field. Shorthanded play we increase our hand values a hair.
This is bubble pressure poker! Almost Everyone is super tight and hands don't go past the flop often. No racing! Good Spots pay more in the long run and are less risky. Add a TV camera or TV bubble the pressure goes up.
Most people have seen the classic BOOTH vs IVEY bluff. If not GOOGLE it.
BOOTH said this was all about TV pressure....If IVEY feels pressure, you can bet the average Joe has his head in a vise!
Back to 3x to 5x BB max, but min raises are often enough.
More importantly, we really pick the good spots and apply pressure to weaker players and avoid strong ones like the plaque without huge hands. Most players can't call with less than AJ, KQ or a PP. We all know that those just don't fall out of the sky.
Kenny says you have to find about 1 spot per rotation to stay ahead of the blinds. Not every rotation but on average. The antes help. Even if you go to a flop, you still can outflop and outplay the weaker players. As always, better position, better chance.
Biggest Pitfall.....not doing this and getting blinded out or a player waking up with a hand. REMEMBER TO KEEP FOLD EQUITY IN YOUR STACK! I like to call 7 blinds my ATC push minimum and look for the best spots. Weaker tight players. Again even if they wake up with a hand you can suc out. PROs are not afraid to have to. They know this is there best chance. Calling off is the end of most players.
On average every pro will tell you that shit happens but you will go further more often playing the bubble. Problem is you are under the same pressure and every hand you have to use ATC with a great spot makes a TAG want to throw up on his own lap. Good play here with ATC makes up for a whole tourney just playing TAG. The pots are huge with blinds and antes and very seldom contested.
The bubble pops, same idea be the aggressor against the weaker players.
Biggest Pitfall.....there are none left and you are in a shit sandwich of loose aggressive players with huge stacks!
Final is really a big SNG but now its time to race when needed. An aggressive table usually gets shorthanded fast.....wait for it.....then switch to that game.
Good luck Heads up!
Of course there are still beats and cruel poker god jokes. That's why it doesn't work every time. Doing it all right is way easier to say than do also. It's alot to keep sorted and its always under pressure and fighting our own fear of loss.
Really defines the cards don't matter as much.
Read Gus's stats and after thoughts in "every hand revealed.".....you will see how close this whole thing fits.
Consider Espandaris: "Don't try to bend the spoon.......There is no spoon" & there are 4 ways to win a pot .....A hand, A weaker player, information and position.
So much better live when you can take your time and get reads!
On SC I make the top 10% of the field very often. Problem is most tourneys there don't pay that.
I did get $20 (225th) this last red and I messed up part way. I switch between a TAG game only to get membership dues then back to this every other token event to practise consistency and gain confidence. I have only not cashed in the red once. I took 2nd last week in the 75 with hardly any cards. Also got my token and my bellagio every week or had the points. I do miss quite a few though...my weekends like many other peoples are busy and if I am playing well its better chances to go out and play home games or casino.
Mostly I am playing point builders to try for Bellagio. Either way top 10% is consistent but doesn't always award SPOY. I have only busted my points once and I was donking trying to get my black star.
Live always pays 10%.
Even SC's " While a great player can make any two cards work.....hand helper is for those......."
Friday, February 6, 2009
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